I am not usually one to engage in wild conspiracy theories, but I must admit that the upcoming elections south of the border have me very concerned. This is because I am not convinced that the elections will go ahead and, even if they do, that Trump will actually acknowledge the results and agree to step down.
First off, I believe that the Republican Party will not only support him in this, but will encourage it behind the scenes. To understand why, we need to travel back in time to look at the history of the Republican Party. When the USA was first founded, both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party were very different than they are today. They even had different names. Neither party was considered to be liberal or conservative. Instead there were elements of each in both parties. After winning independence from Britain, the colonists were divided about the form the new country would take. Some wanted a very loose confederation of individual colonies, which was how they had existed before the revolution, whereas others wanted a strong federal system. Thus, the two parties were born. The Republicans who favored a strong central government, whereas the Democrats favored states’ rights. (As an interesting side note, this was the actual reason for the second amendment. Each state was unwilling to disband their state militias after the War of Independence, so they wanted a written guarantee that they would never have to. It was never intended to promote individual gun ownership.)
Fast forward to the thirties. There was a very conservative and powerful block with the Democratic party called the Dixiecrats. (Another irony is that it was the Democrats who ruled the southern states at that time.) Then, of course, the unthinkable happened. The Democrats chose a dreaded “socialist” as their presidential candidate. Of course he won the election. That candidate was FDR. Then, of course, after FDR’s death came Harry Truman. One of Truman’s first acts in office was to desegregate the military. As I’m sure you can guess, this angered many of the Dixiecrats, and things only got worse from there. Kennedy and LBJ both furthered a civil rights campaign within the Democratic party (LBJ far more than Kennedy, but it is Kennedy who gets more of the credit for some reason). That was it. The Dixiecrats moved to the Republican Party enmasse, lurching the Republicans far to the right. This created a Republican Party that was determined to enshrine the values of the Dixiecrats at a federal level, at any cost necessary. The Republicans, while talking about freedom, became obsessed with what can only be described as fascism.
The first trial run of this belief system came into play when Nixon was elected, employing what was called “The Southern Strategy”. That is, they played on racial intolerance and bigotry to get elected. Unfortunately for them (but good for the rest of us) the strategy backfired when the Watergate scandal broke. The people of the USA were just not ready for a party so desperate for power that they were willing to undermine democracy to keep it.
Now, this is where the conspiracy theory comes into play. After Nixon, I believe that the Republicans decided that they had to move slowly if they were to achieve their objectives. A few years later, along came a washed up movie star by the name of Ronald Reagan. It’s interesting to note that, here as well, the Republicans saw nothing wrong with cheating to get what they wanted. At the time, the USA was in negotiations with Iran to get the hostages released, and every day that this process continued saw Jimmy Carter’s popularity fall. To get Reagan elected, house Republicans deliberately delayed the process as much as they could, putting the hostages’ lives at risk to win the election (This is not conspiracy theory. This is actually quite well documented).
It was Reagan’s policies that essentially destroyed the middle class in the US. He gave massive tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations, shifting the tax burden to individuals. He also gutted the anti-trust laws in the states (which I personally believe was even more devastating than the tax cuts), giving birth to the massive corporations that we see today. We talk about capitalism like it is still a valid idea, but the central tenet of a capitalist society is competition, which no longer exists. There are now literally ten companies that own everything across the globe.
These policies were continued on by those Republicans that followed (The two Bushes). Unfortunately, even as the Republicans moved further and further to the right, there was not a corresponding move to the left within the Democratic Party. They have held firmly to the center, which has further exacerbated the problem as voters have seen no relief in their tax burden. Essentially, the Republicans cut taxes to the rich and then cut services. The Democrats bring the services back, but with funding that comes from raising taxes on the middle class. (To be honest, I was never a big fan of Obama for this very reason. I also worry about Joe Biden. I think that the Democrats really needed another FDR, but instead voted for another James Buchanan. If Trump does lose the election and Joe Biden does nothing to actually fix the problems, then I believe we will look back fondly on the Trump presidency. Whoever comes next will be far worse.)
Now, anyone who has looked at economic growth knows that economies do not ‘trickle down”, they actually trickle up. We saw this reality very clearly during the covid crisis. Within a few weeks, the mighty corporations were struggling because it is the lower and middle classes who actually spend their money and keep the entire system afloat.
I believe that the true goal of the Republicans throughout this time was twofold. One, they wanted to create a wealthy and powerful elite within the USA that would support their policies. More importantly, they wanted to actively create division within the general population. How do you do that? Well, you essentially destroy the middle class, just as they have done. If one looks at Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, most people now occupy the lowest level. They are worried about the most basic needs we have, food and shelter. By keeping the populace in this state, they essentially keep us at a level where we behave much more instinctually because we constantly worry about simple survival. As a result, we have seen a striking resurgence of tribalism, not just in the States but around the world. We are constantly fighting for resources, so of course we see others as competition for those same resources. Societal bonds begin to break down until you have what we see today, open hostility and a “screw everyone but me” mentality.
Ironically, the Republican Party, who started the whole mess with their tax cuts, is then able to retain power by blaming POC for the problems everyone is facing.
This, of course, brings us to Trump. I believe that Trump represents their end game. This has been the plan all along. If you create enough division, people will certainly be more willing to accept a dictator. He will protect us from those “others”. They truly believe that their own freedoms are sacrosanct, and that a dictatorship will only take away the freedoms of the bad people. Never before in American history have so many seemed willing to accept a dictator in principle. Many have called for Trump to remain president no matter what the election results are. Some are even calling on Trump to create a dynasty, allowing his children to take over when he is done. If Trump does indeed decide to remain, I believe that there will be a great deal of support for this move.
Of course, once a dictatorship is in place, it becomes much easier to create the country you would like to see. A country where white males have all of the power once again. Some have argued with me on this, bringing up the constitution. I would remind people that Germany also had a constitution in 1933. The economic situation in the US is also eerily similar to Germany’s at the time, as is public sentiment.
I would also point out another great motivating factor for the Republicans. I truly believe that we have barely scratched the surface when it comes to criminal activity within this administration. There is a real feeling from them all that this is simply what white males are entitled to in life. Take for example the current wealth of Mitch McConnell. This is a man who has somehow managed to make millions of dollars on a senator’s salary. Top Republicans must know that, should they lose power, a great many of them will be spending some significant time in prison.
Now, I must admit that for several months I was stymied as to how they would pull off such a move. To create a dictatorship, they would need the support of the military. However, the current military leadership would almost certainly be more likely to drag Trump from the White House kicking and screaming. Then…BLM came along. The resulting actions by police forces across the country have definitely given me pause on this subject. For starters, the police nation wide are now heavily armed with military grade weapons and equipment. Second, they are almost universally Trump supporters. All one has to do is look at police union web sites across the country and a very alarming trend begins to emerge. They have, almost universally, publicly endorsed Trump as president. The question then becomes would the support of the police be enough to secure power if Trump refuses to relinquish power.
This is what keeps me up at night.